On May 26, the "2016 China Plastics Industry Conference" co-hosted by Dalian Commodity Exchange, China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Federation, and China National Light Industry Federation was successfully held in Shenzhen. The conference attracted representatives from more than 300 enterprises and institutions, including relevant industry organizations and spot enterprises.
Zhao Jungui: The traditional low-cost expansion model of the petrochemical industry is unsustainable
Zhao Jungui, vice-chairman of the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Federation, said that the rising cost of China's industry shows that the traditional low-cost expansion and development model is unsustainable. Zhao Jungui analyzed that China's taxation has increased, and the industry's fiscal and tax policies need to be adjusted and optimized; structural adjustment is difficult to progress, and the industry's weak innovation capability has increasingly become a shortcoming that restricts the development of the industry. Fine chemicals and new chemical materials lead the development of the industry and become the highlights of the industry.
The supply-side reform runs through the industry's "13th Five-Year Plan". First, optimize the structure and continue to grow. "Structural adjustment" and "steady growth" are the two main tasks for the development of the industry during the "13th Five-Year Plan". The second is innovation-driven, green development, and insisting on innovation-driven and green development as the two major development strategies for the implementation of the "13th Five-Year Plan" industry. The third is to optimize the stock and strengthen the increment. Fourth, deepen reform and promote development.
Cai Daying: Loss-making companies in the plastics industry will increase in 2016
Mr. Cai Daying, deputy secretary general of China National Light Industry Federation and director of China Light Industry Information Center, said that in 2015, the number of loss-making enterprises above designated size in China's plastic products industry reached 1,687, a year-on-year increase of 11.4%. This number is expected to increase in 2016.
Looking forward to the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan", under the forced mechanism of the new normal, the plastics industry will be able to fully complete the task of transformation and upgrading if it can seize the development opportunities of these strategies and implement the innovation-driven development strategy with the help of advanced scientific and technological means. On the road of "quality benefit type" development.
Fan Jianping: China's economic downturn has only slowed down but not stopped completely
Fan Jianping, chief economist of the State Information Center, said in his keynote speech that China's GDP has continued to decline in terms of annual and quarterly growth rates, and the economic downturn has only slowed down, not completely stopped. At present, it is too optimistic to say that China's economy has a small boom. The problem of China's economy is not a speed problem, but an efficiency problem.
Fan Jianping believes that zombie companies are a cancer in the economy. To reduce overcapacity, zombie companies should be slashed and weaned, especially state-owned enterprises.
Xu Xiaoqing: Asset prices follow the logic of weak economic recovery. Xu Xiaoqing, Macro Strategy Director of Dunhe Investment Co., Ltd., said in his keynote speech that China's asset prices follow the logic of China's weak economic recovery. Stimulates suspicion. It is not the first time that China has cut overcapacity. We need to review the performance of various types of asset management during the last period of overcapacity reduction. The growth rate of real estate sales will drop in the second half of the year, the number of real estate starts will bottom out in the second half of this year, and the demand for related commodities will also bottom out.
Guo Yongxin: Four major evolutions have occurred in the plastics industry pattern. Guo Yongxin, deputy director of the China Light Industry Information Center, said in his keynote speech that with the development of society and technology, there have been four major evolutions in the plastics industry pattern in recent years: from daily use to industrial support; From the east as the main production area to the central and western regions; from the domestic market to the global market; from simple processing to high-tech processing.
Chen Wei: Larger price fluctuations make it more difficult to close positions Chen Wei, director of the Industrial Products Division of Dalian Commodity Exchange, said in his keynote speech that intraday fluctuations in futures prices have increased, making it more difficult for investors to close positions. One of the results of measures to increase margin, increase handling fees, and increase intraday transaction handling fees is to reduce price fluctuations and reduce intraday transaction volumes. Cui Kezeng: Polypropylene is changing from structural surplus to overall surplus Cui Kezeng, deputy general manager, secretary of the board of directors and chief analyst of Zhuochuang Information Group Co., Ltd., made a detailed statement on the status and pattern of polypropylene. Cui Kezeng said that propylene monomer is changing from a shortage to a total surplus. The margin of propylene to polypropylene determines the change of market supply. The three pillars of recycling-powder-granule affect each other, and the supply and demand pattern is changing; polypropylene is changing from structural excess. Towards a comprehensive surplus; the price gap between polypropylene general materials and PE is widening and moving closer to PVC, and the price of high-end special materials is relatively firm; the development of products to "high-end and differentiated" should increase the development of new brands.
Gao Chunyu: In the future, China's polyethylene will face pressure from North America. Gao Chunyu, a senior expert at the Economic and Technological Research Institute of Sinopec Group Corporation, pointed out in his keynote speech that from the perspective of future capacity expansion, the future capacity expansion of ethylene will coincide with the period from 2000 to 2015. There is a difference in capacity expansion during this time of year. In the next five years, the focus of global ethylene capacity expansion will shift back to North America. Because North America has now become the region with the lowest ethylene cost outside the Middle East. According to incomplete statistics, from 2015 to 2020, the new global ethylene production capacity is expected to be less than 30 million tons, about 12.5 million tons in North America, and 14.6 million tons in Asia-Pacific. The newly added 14.6 million tons in the Asia-Pacific region, about more than 7 million tons, are all from China's CTO, FTO, and coal or methanol-based enterprises. If crude oil prices fall further, new capacity additions in the Asia-Pacific region are uncertain. From the perspective of the overall trend, the new production capacity of the entire North American region will account for a huge share of the global share in the future. Gao Chunyu said that because the price of natural gas is very low now, the next biggest shock is the price shock. At present, China's polyethylene imports are very large, and it may be more products from the Middle East. In the future, China will not only face pressure from products from the Middle East, but may also face pressure from products from the United States. If the United States has more than 12 million tons, With nearly 8 million tons of production capacity released, the United States may increase exports in the future, probably by nearly 5 million tons, and a large part of the products will be exported to China.